“Looking at this year's salmon return, relative to the last 15 years… I would call this year certainly average to above average,” said Greg Taylor, senior fisheries advisor to Watershed Watch Salmon Society.
As some B.C. salmon hatcheries are experiencing their best return in a decade, experts across the province are welcoming the refreshing news.
“We've seen good returns across species and populations,” said Taylor. “On the east coast of Vancouver Island, in most cases, we’re seeing excellent chum returns and very good coho returns,” said Taylor. “On the west coast, we saw excellent sockeye returns.”
Another promising sign, noted Taylor, is the reappearance of steelhead, a member of the salmonid family, previously thought to be on the brink of collapse in numerous watersheds.
Peter McCully, a biologist and longtime volunteer with the Goldstream Hatchery in Greater Victoria shared his enthusiasm as this year’s numbers are above all prior expectations.
“In the last few years, [chum salmon] have been suffering from changing ocean conditions so we were sort of apprehensive about how the run would look this year,” he said. “But as it turns out the return has exceeded DFO’s target.”
Originally hoping to reach the threshold of 15,000 chum, McCully reported that upwards of 20,000 returned to the river this year. Additionally, the hatchery harvested up to 1,800 coho, which McCully labelled as a “really significant” number.
“This is one of the best returns that there's been for the last 20 years I would suggest,” he said. “They’re by no means record returns, but they're better than what we had anticipated.”
When asked about the reasons behind this year's spawning numbers across the province, experts remain puzzled by the increase.
“We still don't quite understand what the changes are, but the [conditions are] very good and very suited for salmon,” said Taylor. “We're seeing some real changes in the Salish Sea where large numbers of chinooks… and cohos are migrating through at very high numbers.”
At this time, without the perspective of history, McCully and Taylor noted that any conclusions are purely speculative.
“With salmon, no one has the defining answer,” said Taylor. “Based on my observations… we saw good returns coastwide. We've also seen a change in the northeast Pacific where… the temperatures in the waters have become more beneficial to our salmon.”
Potential theories range widely, including a recent switch in climate, from an El Nino to an El Nina pattern, which both have global impacts on weather and the ecosystems of the Pacific Northwest.
Unlike El Nino events, which bring warmer waters, unfavourable to salmonids, La Nina climate patterns bring cooler, nutrient-rich waters to the West Coast, from which salmon species benefit.
Another theory that may have benefited B.C.’s salmon involves a recent decline in pink salmon populations from Alaskan hatcheries and chum populations from Japanese hatcheries in the Pacific this year, explained Taylor.
“Scientists have shown how there is a relationship between the hatchery abundance – how much fish we put into the ocean – and how that impacts B.C. salmon runs,” he said. “[If you] put out billions of salmon from hatcheries they just out-compete wild salmon stocks.”
“This year, for whatever reason, they weren't there and I think our fish saw the benefit of the relative absence of hatchery fish.”
As Taylor reiterated, the exact justification behind this year’s numbers remains unclear, as what happens in the ocean is still unknown.
“It could have been just the cooler temperatures in the Bering Sea, or it could have been [less] predators. We just don't understand,” said Taylor. “In the fisheries, we call the Pacific Ocean the ‘black box’ because we don't have a good idea of what happens out there.”
Enthusiasm on hold
Although what happens out at sea remains a mystery, Taylor stressed that some of the greatest threats to salmon are manmade.
“We're seeing good returns, but what we saw this summer was climate change in action,” said Taylor. “If I compared it to when I began my career, I would classify them as poor and if I was to them to pre-contact, they're abysmal.
Concerned about this past summer’s extended droughts, which dried up numerous vital streams across the province, experts feared for this year’s spawning season. Fortunately, fall rains arrived on time, and rivers across B.C. swelled just in time for the salmon’s final journey.
If B.C. experiences similar droughts this summer, it could be “fatal” for coho, chinook, and sockeye, which reside in lakes and rivers for up to a year after hatching before migrating to the ocean, explained Taylor.
“The marine environment's been terrific for salmon, but hopefully, they get a decent summer next year and the progeny do well next year,” said Taylor. “But if we have another drought next year, a lot of the benefits will be decimated.”
Drying streams can be deadly for juvenile salmon, exposing them to high temperatures, lack of water, and predators.
Other manmade threats, like logging, mining, extensive urban development and other human activities near spawning streams can have deleterious impacts on fish populations, added Taylor.
Even once out at sea, these silvery fish are not entirely out of harm's way. Noting that salmon are among the few species on Earth reliant on both freshwater and ocean environments, this makes them particularly susceptible to the impacts of climate change.
Events like an upcoming El Nino pattern or large marine heatwaves, such as “The Blob” in the Pacific Northwest from 2013 to 2016, which raised ocean temperatures by up to 3.9 C in some areas, all pose a serious risk to both current and future salmon populations.
Though the impact of climate change on salmon is unclear, said Taylor, any blow dealt to this keystone species could have devastating ripple effects on the West Coast food chain, affecting resident killer whales, bears, eagles, wolves, and more.
Hopeful signs
Despite painting a grim picture of B.C. salmon's potential future, Taylor remains optimistic. After being in fisheries since the '80s, and witnessing firsthand the impact of climate change on the marine environment, the fisheries expert argues that it’s not too late to reverse some ongoing worrying trends.
Although limiting carbon emissions is the best way to mitigate global warming, Taylor said that smaller efforts, such as adapting and restoring local streams to make them more salmon-friendly, would also be of great help. Additionally, rethinking urban expansion and its impact on local streams and salmon populations could also be beneficial, he noted
Before his conservation work, Taylor led a First Nations' gillnet fleet for years and has seen how reconciliation efforts have reshaped the province’s fisheries over time. As DFO hands more responsibility for salmon management to First Nations, Taylor believes this partnership could be key to safeguarding the salmon's future.
“First Nations are stepping up and they bring a different ethic to it,” he said. “It's a marriage between good science, good management, and a different belief system when it comes to [salmon] management. That's what gives me more hope in the future.”
