Break out the snowmageddon jokes, flurries are in the forecast for Vancouver Island.
In all seriousness, rain, snow and freezing drizzle could impact driving and other outdoor activities once the “lazy low” lands Thursday (Jan. 30) near Vancouver Island.
The forecast for the Victoria International Airport calls for a 60 per cent chance of rain showers or flurries Saturday night, with lows expected to dip to -1C. There is a 60 per cent chance of showers or flurries in the forecast for Sunday and Monday as well.
Colder temperatures will linger into the start of February increasing the odds Islanders will see some snow this winter, though to the usual varying degrees.
Depending on elevation and timing of the storm, areas closest to sea level around Vancouver Island will likely see rain. There’s a small chance the precipitation in those areas will fall in flurries, said Lisa Erven, warning preparedness meteorologist with Environment and Climate Change Canada.
It marks a major shift from a long dry pattern to an incoming series of fronts and low-pressure systems starting Jan. 30.
Higher elevation roadways, such as the Malahat portion of Highway 1 connecting Greater Victoria and the Cowichan Valley, and Highway 4 between Coombs and Port Alberni and Highway 18 connecting Lake Cowichan could see the white stuff or freezing drizzle as that storm arrives.
Once plunged into that first cold front, the chilling trend continues for the Island with freezing levels set to drop Friday night through at least mid-week.
“The ingredients are coming together where snow even at the lowest elevations is possible,” Erven said.
“We need cold temperatures and low freezing levels – they kind of come hand in hand – we need moisture and we need some sort of weather system. … In this case we’ve got a lazy low that’s going to hang out over or nearby Vancouver Island for many days.”
The coming low is not a strong or robust system that’s easy to track in terms of timing or amounts of precipitation.
“That’s just the nature of this weather system,” she said. Even running model after model as they frequently do, meteorologists will see shifting precipitation potential, she said.
Residents should already have winter tires on vehicles, but now it’s time to break out the shovels, salt and winter boots.
Build a buffer into travel plans, knowing snow or freezing drizzle could be on the way.
“It’s one of those times that if you do have travel plans or activities path are sensitive to weather – outdoor recreation or working outdoors – you’re just going to have to pay more attention to the forecast,” she said.
Whether the weather dumps water or not, temperatures have already been icy, and will continue to be, prompting reminders from Road Safety at Work, a WorkSafeBC-funded Injury Reduction Initiative managed by the Justice Institute of British Columbia.
“When the roads are icy you not only have to watch yourself, you have to watch for others sliding into your path,” program director Trace Acres, said. “The best advice is to postpone your trip if possible. If you have to drive, you need to anticipate hazards that could put you and your passengers at risk and be prepared to react quickly.”
Safe driving at this time of year starts with mindset – remembering road conditions, weather, or driver behaviour may be unpredictable.
“It’s always better to know what you’re up against. Preparation and caution are key to avoiding crashes,” he said, recommending all drivers, work or pleasure check conditions on DriveBC.ca before heading out.
There are other ways to be ready; the first line of defence is four matched winter tires.
They provide better traction in cold temperatures because they stay soft, unlike all-season tires, which harden in the cold. Winter tires with the three-peaked mountain and snowflake symbol provide the best performance when temperatures drop below 7C.
Black ice forms on shaded roads or under bridges and overpasses where moisture freezes faster. It’s a thin, transparent layer that blends into the road and can catch drivers off guard. While difficult to spot, shiny, dark patches on the road and ice buildup on the windshield serve as clues.
Drivers should also remember speed limits are set for ideal conditions.
"In winter, those conditions don’t exist,” Acres said. “Always drive below the posted speed limit, and stay at least four seconds behind the vehicle in front of you.”
Hitting the ice
If your vehicle starts to skid on ice, try to stay calm. Ease off the accelerator and steer gently in the direction you want to go. Harsh braking or sudden turns can worsen the skid, making it harder to regain control of the vehicle. Smooth and steady steering is the key to recovering from a skid.
Intersections and hills are especially hazardous when the roads are icy. Approach intersections slowly and brake early.
Always check cross streets are clear before proceeding, as other drivers may also struggle to stop in icy conditions.
If you can’t avoid a hill, pick a path that provides the most traction. Unpacked snow or powder provide a better grip. Watch the cars ahead of you to see where they’re spinning their wheels or sliding and avoid those spots.
Be sure to allow plenty of time for the trip too. Rushing when it’s icy increases your risk of being injured in a crash.
“It’s better to arrive late than not at all," Acres said.
