A political scientist sees the absorption of some former B.C. United candidates by the Conservative Party of B.C. gives the party a chance to moderate itself.
But Gregory Millard, who teaches at Kwantlen Polytechnic University, also notes that the B.C. NDP still has the advantage of incumbency, even as polls show the race tightening.
Little more than one week after B.C. United Leader Kevin Falcon suspended the party's campaign and encouraged members to get behind the Conservative Party of B.C., the question of who's in and who's out for the party remains fluid heading into the election. Millard said uncertainty currently defines the political climate after B.C. United's historic decision.
"It's pretty much unprecedented for an established party to just surrender to an upstart rival without even holding an election," he said.
He added the Conservative Party of B.C. might represent something entirely new.
"The B.C. Liberals have done a good job of combining fiscal conservatism with social liberalism," he said. "So that element is now out (and) the social conservative element is clearly a core part of the right wing-coalition in this province in a way that was obscured by the B.C. Liberals. So that's a significant shift."
Whether voters will follow that shift will depend a lot on what campaign leader John Rustad and his Conservatives will run, Millard added.
"How will they integrate the B.C. United element? Will this thing really hold together? (Will) a critical mass of B.C. United (voters) go to the NDP?"
It is against this background that Millard sees the recent addition of B.C. United candidates like incumbent MLAs Trevor Halford, Peter Milobar and Ian Paton as a shift toward the centre.
"(That) seems to be the strategy," he said.
He specifically pointed to the addition of the former B.C. United candidate Kiel Giddens. On Wednesday (Sept.4), he became the candidate for Prince George Mackenzie, replacing Rachel Weber. She had gained provincial notoriety for having called 5G cell towers “genocidal weapons” and blaming them for the COVID-19 pandemic among other claims.
"Giddens (a former of Chamber of Commerce president) signals a business-friendly, right-tilting message, but one that is less likely than Weber to become a flashpoint for NDP attacks on the grounds of extremism," Millard said.
Looming behind questions about the direction of the Conservatives is the broader question of where centrist voters, assuming their existence, will find home on the assumption that the collapse of B.C. United has returned B.C. politics to the familiar left-right division.
B.C. United MLA Karin Kirkpatrick is not so sure.
"You have left all of us middle-of-the-road centrist voters with no political home here in B.C.," she wrote on social media in a tweet indirectly aimed Falcon. "Thanks a lot." She had earlier asked whether the "masterminds" behind the suspension of B.C. United had considered that all :"of the middle of the road voters would be forced to swing to the left" in arguing that consolidating the right has also consolidated the centre left.
Millard said that centrist voters are to be won in the suburbs of Metro Vancouver.
"There a lot of voters who could be scared off by a politics that is too left or too far right...and if you come off too radically, you will drive them probably into the arms of the other party," he said.
But if centrist voters exist, Millard said "it is another story" where they will find a home.
"I think the John Horgan NDP was very aware of the fact that historically, this province almost always elects the centre-right option...something weird has to happen for the NDP to come in," he said. Under Premier David Eby, the NDP has "been a little more aggressive in moving to the left," Millard said.
He pointed to a number of issues, such as government's "very abrasive" approach toward municipalities and decriminalization, which he described as a "huge problem for them."
He later noted that the NDP has already been pulling back from decriminalization and he predicted that New Democrats will firm up their flank on the issue of public safety.
This said, Millard said that the NDP is "better positioned" to pivot toward the centre, because they are "a known quantity as the governing party." Eby also has higher favourability ratings than Rustad.
"A lot of citizens still don't even know who he is despite his ministerial experience," Millard said.
An Angus Reid poll released on Friday afternoon shows the B.C. Conservatives (44 per cent) and the B.C. NDP (43 per cent) in a statistical tie among decided and leaning voters with the B.C. Greens at 10 per cent. The poll notes that 68 per cent of those who voted for the B.C. Liberals in the 2020 election say they plan to vote for the B.C Conservatives now. But Eby's personal ratings (43 per cent) are higher than Rustad (33 per cent) with the proviso that they are heading in opposite direction with Eby going down and Rustad rising.
Millard, however, still sees the B.C. NDP in the driver seat.
"My reaction to the poll is that it’s not surprising that a substantial portion of former B.C. United support would move to the Conservatives," he said. "After all, this is what Falcon urged supporters to do."
But NDP support is more efficient, he added.
"So even with the popular vote at a tie, the probabilities favour an NDP win in the seat count. Elections matter, though, and certainly the NDP cannot afford complacency or to run a poor campaign."
So what will matter in the campaign? Policies or rhetoric?
"Well, I'm going to be a blunt and say elections are seldom decided primarily on policy," Millard said. "Of course, you need to have policy and the policy needs to seem sensible to people. But ultimately, elections usually succeed or fail on the basis of those concerns like performance, values and just the general vibe...that the party and the leaders are putting forward."
According to the Angus Reid poll, a majority of British Columbians say the province is on the “wrong track” across all demographics when it comes to dealing with opioid crisis (68 per cent) and making housing more affordable (69 per cent).
This reservoir of dissatisfaction is not just deep on the opioid and housing and Conservative voters. Dissatisfaction with government's performance is also evident in health care (60 per cent say B.C. is on the wrong track) and public safety (45 per cent say is on the wrong track)..
"While likely B.C Conservative voters are near universal in their criticism on these files, there are sizable groups of B.C. NDP and B.C. Greens who say the province is moving in the wrong direction when it comes to the opioids and housing crises," it reads.
A look at the B.C. Liberals' class of 2020 now
Twenty-eight B.C. Liberals won seats in British Columbia's 2020 provincial election, making them the Official Opposition.
Here's a look at their current status after the party, now known as BC United, was withdrawn last week from the 2024 election by Leader Kevin Falcon. Others, including Elenore Sturko, now running as a Conservative, and Falcon, who is retiring from politics, were elected in byelections.
Running as B.C. Conservatives
Bruce Banman, Abbotsford South: In September 2023 Banman crossed the floor to become the second sitting provincial Conservative after John Rustad.
Lorne Doerkson, Cariboo Chilcotin: Doerkson crossed the floor to sit with the B.C. Conservatives in May 2024.
Trevor Halford, Surrey-White Rock: Halford was one of three former BC United MLAs who announced on Tuesday that they would run under the B.C. Conservative banner.
Peter Milobar, Kamloops-North Thompson: Milobar also announced he was joining the Conservatives on Tuesday. He will be running in Kamloops Centre.
Ian Paton, Delta South: Paton is the third former BC United MLA who announced their switch to the Conservatives on Tuesday.
John Rustad, Nechako Lakes: Rustad was kicked out of the then B.C. Liberal caucus by Falcon in August 2022 over comments suggesting climate change was not caused by carbon dioxide emissions. He became Conservative leader in March 2023.
Teresa Wat, Richmond North Centre: Wat crossed to the B.C. Conservatives in July.
Running as Independents
Mike Bernier, Peace River South: Bernier announced Wednesday he would run as an Independent. Bernier said he didn't want to "bend" his morals and values by running with the provincial Conservatives.
Tom Shypitka, Kootenay East: Shypitka announced Wednesday that he would be running as an Independant in the newly named Kootenay-Rockies riding.
Dan Davies, Peace River North: Davies announced Thursday that he would be running as an Independent
Withdrew after BC United halted campaign
Shirley Bond, Prince George Valemount: A former opposition leader who was first elected as an MLA in 2001, Bond announced she was withdrawing the day after Falcon announced he was suspending United's campaign.
Jackie Tegart, Fraser Nicola: Tegart, who has been an MLA since 2013, announced on Tuesday that she would not be running for re-election.
Todd Stone, Kamloops-South Thompson: Stone, the BC United house leader, announced his retirement from politics the day after Falcon's bombshell.
Previously announced they weren't seeking re-election
Dan Ashton, Penticton: Ashton said he was not running again provincially in December 2023. Months later he announced he would be seeking the federal Conservative nomination in South Okanagan-Similkameen-West Kootenay.
Stephanie Cadieux, Surrey South: Cadieux resigned her seat in April 2022 to become Canada's first chief accessibility officer.
Doug Clovechok, Columbia River-Revelstoke: In February 2024 Clovechok announced he was not seeking re-election due to health challenges.
Mike de Jong, Abbotsford West: De Jong announced in February 2024 that he would not seek another term as MLA. He is seeking the federal Conservative nomination for Abbotsford-South Langley.
Karin Kirkpatrick, West Vancouver Capilano: In February, Kirkpatrick said she would not be seeking re-election, saying she was putting her health and family first.
Greg Kyllo, Shuswap: Kyllo announced his retirement from politics in October 2023.
Michael Lee, Vancouver-Langara: In July 2024 Lee said he was heading back to work in the private sector and would not seek re-election.
Norm Letnick, Kelowna-Lake Country: Letnick announced in April 2023 that he would not be seeking a fifth term.
Renee Merrifield, Kelowna-Mission: Merrifield announced in May 2024 that she would not seek re-election.
Mike Morris, Prince George-Mackenzie: In March 2023, Morris said he planned to retire.
Ellis Ross, Skeena: Ross was named the federal Conservatives' candidate in the Skeena-Bulkley Valley riding in January 2024.
Ben Stewart, Kelowna West: Stewart, who was first elected in 2013, announced in October 2023 that he would not seek re-election.
Jordan Sturdy, West Vancouver-Sea-to-Sky: Sturdy announced in January that he would not seek re-election.
Andrew Wilkinson, Vancouver Quilchena: Wilkinson resigned as party leader after lowing the 2020 election and in February 2022, he resigned as MLA to allow Falcon to run in a byelection.
Have not announced plans
Coralee Oakes, Cariboo North
— Canadian Press
