The 2024 B.C. provincial election was historic in many ways.
The B.C. Conservative party — which won 1.91 per cent and zero seats in 2020 — finds itself within inches of power, leading in 45 ridings in the initial count and capturing 43.57 per cent of the popular vote as the party tapped into a public mood for change.
The B.C. NDP, meanwhile, finds itself with 11 fewer seats in 2024 than in 2020 as 16 incumbents lost their respective races. But David Eby remains premier until somebody else can command the confidence of the legislature.
Finally, the B.C. Greens are leading in two ridings and stand to repeat their 2017 role of king-makers by holding the balance of power — assuming no change in the seat count with two ridings the subject of automatic recounts, and the potential of more counting to follow.
But 2024 is not a direct repeat of 2017 for several reasons.
First, no party — in this case, B.C. United, which was the Official Opposition at dissolution — had ever folded its campaign before a single vote was cast.
Second, this campaign unfolded as much in the digital world as it did in the analog world (notwithstanding Chip Wilson's signs) with leaders taking to podcasts and using internet memes as campaign tools.
Third, long-time observers of provincial politics have called this race the most divisive, most polarizing they have ever seen with more partisanship and permanent campaigning in store. That says something given the history of B.C. politics.
Here here five — preliminary — takeaways from 2024.
Surrey, Surrey, Surrey
American journalist Tim Russert once held up a whiteboard that read only 'Florida, Florida, Florida' into television cameras to explain the closeness of the U.S. presidential election of 2000. Today, in B.C. that whiteboard would likely be a Tweet and read 'Surrey, Surrey, Surrey'.
With 10 ridings, B.C.'s soon-to-be-largest city was the main electoral battleground.
The NDP won seven out of nine ridings in 2020. But the addition of one new riding (Surrey-Serpentine River), boundary changes to the others and retirement of familiar NDP candidates Bruce Ralson and Harry Bains made the NDP's dominance less certain. Factor in familiar concerns about health care, housing and public safety — the region saw several high-profile murders before the election — and the area appeared ripe for taking.
In the end, Conservatives won seven out of 10 seats and may yet win an eighth once the recount for Surrey-Centre is done. Even the musings of Brent Chapman (Surrey-South) about Muslims, residential schools and other issues did not stop the electorate swing.
The success of the Conservatives in Surrey is also symbolic of their larger success in suburban ridings up and down the confluence of the Fraser River. They won three out of four Richmond ridings, diminished the NDP in Maple Ridge and swept fast-growing ridings in the Langley-Abbotsford-Chilliwack corridor.
Their success in that part of ended the careers of no less than six cabinet members: Pam Alexis, Rachna Singh, Andrew Mercier, Dan Coulter, Kelli Paddon and Megan Dykeman. All but Singh had won their seats in 2020 from B.C. Liberals.
Rural B.C. No Country for New Democrats
The B.C. NDP is leading in three B.C. Interior ridings — Vernon-Lumby (Harwinder Sandhu), Kootenay-Monashee (Steve Morissette) and Kootenay-Central (Brittny Anderson). That's it.
Two cabinet ministers — Nathan Cullen (Water, Land and Resource Stewardship) and Roly Russell (parliamentary secretary for rural development) lost in Bulkley Valley-Stikine and Boundary-Similkameen respectively.
The party's performance in rural parts of the province gets better when two coast-facing ridings on the provincial mainland (North Coast Haida Gwaii / Powell-River Sunshine Coast) and Vancouver Island (Mid-Island Pacific Rim, Cowichan Valley and Juan de Fuca-Malahat) are included. But that last riding comes with a big proviso: it is one of two subject to a recount.
New Democrats once reliably won ridings that relied on forestry and other forms of resource extraction. But the party — already centred on the cities of Vancouver and Victoria — will have even less rural representation beyond Hope after the election as the Conservatives painted much of the province beyond blue by pointing to concerns around health care and economic development.
No Independent Streak:
The 2024 election set a record for independent and unaffiliated candidates, but none of them including those with local name recognition won.
Former B.C. NDP MLA Adam Walker lost his re-election bid, as did the five former B.C United MLA running as independents — Mike Bernier (Peace River-South) Dan Davies (Peace River-North), Karin Kirkpatrick (West Vancouver-Capilano), Coralee Oakes (Prince George-North Cariboo) and Tom Shypitka (Kootenay-Rockies).
So did independents who once ran for B.C. United and did not get picked up the Conservatives. Stephen Johnston in West Kelowna-Peachland did the best among them with 21.34 per cent, not nearly well enough to beat the Conservatives' Macklin McCall who won nearly 52 per cent. Kevin Acton might have shaped though the outcome in Vernon-Lumby, where he won 15.47 per cent. The B.C. NDP's Harwinder Sandhu is currently leading that riding with the margin of difference to the Conservatives' Dennis Giesbrecht less than 1.5 per cent of the vote.
It Paid To Switch:
Incumbent B.C. United MLAs that switched to the Conservatives before or after B.C. United folded its campaign are going to back to Victoria.
Bruce Banman (Abbotsford-South), Lorne Doerkson (Cariboo-Chilcotin), Elenore Sturko (Surrey-Cloverdale) and Teresa Wat (Richmond-Centre) had switched before B.C. United folded its campaign' Trevor Halford (Surrey-White Rock) Peter Milobar (Kamloops-Centre) and Ian Paton (Delta-South) had switched after.
Winners among former B.C. United candidates running under a new label include Gawin Dew (Kelowna-Mission), Kiel Giddens (Prince George-Mackenzie) and Scott McInnis (Columbia-Revelstoke). Dew, a former leadership candidate for the B.C. Liberals, switched before B.C. United had folded its campaign, Giddens and McInnis after.
B.C. Greens lose their leader, but enough voters listened to her message
Both David Eby of the B.C. NDP and John Rustad of the Conservative Party of B.C. cruised to re-election in their ridings. Victory was far from certain, however, for B.C. Greens Leader Sonia Furstenau who switched ridings from Cowichan Valley to Victoria-Beacon Hill.
In the end, she failed to make up the institutional advantages of the B.C. NDP in that riding.
But if she lost her local race against the cabinet minister Grace Lore, her broader appeal for a minority government, delivered at debates and appearances in front of business leaders, resonated. While the party did not run candidates in all ridings, it ran enough credible candidates in most with the potential to shape the overall outcome.
Victories in Saanich North and Islands and West Vancouver-Sea to Sky fulfilled Furstenau's goal to see her party hold the balance of power in a minority government, even as the party lost almost half of its 2020 popular vote (15.09 per cent) per cent to fall below double digits with 8.19 per cent. Concerns about the environment ranked far below other issues in 2024, but the Greens may yet push them to the forefront when the legislature reconvenes at some future time.
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