A B.C. economic expert thinks it is a "long-shot" that the delegation of Canadian premiers and territorial leaders heading to Washington, D.C. to meet with American officials will stop tariffs against Canada, but that does not mean that they should not try.
Echoing Wayne Gretzky, Ulrich Paschen, instructor at Kwantlen Polytechnic University's Melville School of Business, said the leaders would miss 100 per cent of the shots that they do no take.
"We don't have very good options right now, so I think they are taking the options, that they have, even if they are less than ideal," Paschen said. "I wouldn't fault the Canadian politicians for what they are trying to do right now."
In other words, this trip is not a public-relations exercise.
"Not 100 per cent," Paschen said. "The chances are low. But they are determined to take them."
Part of the problem lies with the current structure of U.S. administration.
"The working level connections that premiers and Canadian leaders have with American institutions, they have served us well in the past, but I think right now, those institutions are being largely sidelined, so their influence will be less than what used to be...the norm," he said.
"There is a small chance of success, so that is the ideal case. But I think in reality, it's largely the Canadian people that are the audience (of the trip), because Canadians have very much voiced their concern that we have to do something and going to work with the contacts we have certainly is doing something, better than not doing anything."
The trip comes on the heels of 25 per cent U.S. tariffs against steel and aluminum for all countries. They will become effective March 4 with no exceptions for Canada and Mexico, even though the United States has paused 25 per cent tariffs against all Canadian and Mexican goods until early March.
"It's getting frosty, but it is getting frosty around the world," Paschen said. "This is a tariff singling out commodities and supplies world-wide. (Canada) is one of the largest suppliers, especially of aluminum, so it, in the end, affects more. In its quality, it is a little bit different, because Canada is not singled out for rather flimsy reasons."
Paschen added that tariffs on steel and aluminum will have a minimal impact on the larger negotiations, because U.S. President Donald Trump considers trade deficits detrimental to Americans and wants to encourage domestic production.
"So if that is the overall goal and President Trump seems to be quite convinced of that, then our negotiating position is very, very poor. We have very low power compared to the (United States) and I think President Trump is not afraid of completely re-designing a world order predicated on global trade. I think that we might be seeing that model come crashing down as we speak."
Paschen said he does not foresee a situation whereby Canada and Mexico escape 25 per cent tariffs on all goods except for steel and aluminum in exchange for accepting tariffs on steel and aluminum.
"Personally, I think that (scenario) would a comparatively low likelihood," Paschen said. "I think they (tariffs of 25 per cent on everything are coming) and I think the pretenses of why are they coming are to be changing. But I believe they will be coming."
Paschen said the reprieve had the purpose of revealing how far Canada and Mexico would be prepared to go without the tariffs actually being implemented.
"So I think that the threatening behaviour to see how much of the border security agenda could be achieved was probably the negotiation tactic," Paschen said.
"Collectively, the world is coming to grips with the fact that the U.S. is becoming very self-centric and is becoming protectionist in a way that we have not seen since between the world wars, really a long time ago."
