This is a response to the article 'Sea-level rise threatens Island communities in the May 2 Peninsula News Review. The story says that scientists warn that by 2050, some coastal areas could be permanently underwater. I would like to do a reality check on these scientists.
The sea level is falling on most of the B.C. coast. It is not rising, and where it is, the rise rate is such that the location with the fastest rise rate will only experience 100mm of rise in 100 years, and just 25mm by 2050. Despite this, UBC’s Coastal Adaptation Lab says that, “It’s time to accept, not resist, rising sea levels” and has artist renderings of False Creek with 500mm of sea level rise in 2050. Vancouver is currently experiencing 0.55 mm of sea level rise per year, the same as it has experienced for the last hundred years. The sea level would need to immediately start rising 20 mm per year to reach 500 mm of sea level rise in 2050. This is absurd since the rate of rise has not changed in 100 years.
I downloaded 1909 to 2018 hourly Victoria Harbour sea level measurements, looked at monthly highs and discovered this cycle. In Victoria Harbour, the two highest recorded sea level measurements were in 1951 and 2003, both occurring at peaks of the lunar cycle. In Victoria, the 2003 sea level record was 20mm higher than in 1951, an increase of only 0.38mm per year.
The story also talks about how the Kwakwaka’wakw communities near Alert Bay are mapping flood-prone zones and advocating for provincial and federal support to relocate critical infrastructure. Alert Bay’s highest recorded sea level was in 1951. There have been three lunar cycles since then, and none have exceeded that level.
To say that we should accept 500mm of sea level rise by 2050 is like telling us the sky is green. We only need to go outside and see that it is blue. Historical sea level can be seen at the NOAA sea level trends website. Go have a look at https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/sltrends/. There is no sea level rise emergency in B.C.
David Hilderman
Central Saanich
