It’s here. American Thanksgiving.
While most of our friends south of the border look at the late-November holiday and think NFL when it comes to sports, most Canadians view it through a different lens. They examine the NHL standings – hoping that their team is above the playoff line.
Why? Since realignment occurred over a decade ago, 80% of the teams that are in playoff spots at Thanksgiving qualify for the post-season. For those that are mathematically challenged, that’s 13 out of 16 teams.
That was the case last season as well as Edmonton, Nashville and the New York Islanders were the only teams to make the playoffs despite being on the outside looking in on Nov. 23, 2023.
Last year on that date, the Vancouver Canucks had 27 points and only the Vegas Golden Knights — with 30 — had more. The Canucks performance in those first 20 games basically clinched a playoff spot.
This season the Canucks haven’t been as fortunate. Not having the services of all-star goaltender Thatcher Demko since the start of the season due to a knee injury was the first issue that the hockey club had to deal with. Dakota Joshua also missed the first 14 games recovering from off-season cancer surgery.
Brock Boeser suffered what appeared to be a concussion on Nov. 7 and missed seven games but was set to return to the lineup in Boston against the Bruins on Tuesday night. Then there’s J.T. Miller, who took a leave of absence on Nov. 19 for personal reasons.
Add it all up and it’s a Canuck team that has been treading water without their three All-Stars from a year ago.
After Monday’s games, Vancouver was below the playoff bar with 23 points, trailing both Colorado and Edmonton by one point for the two wildcard spots. The Canucks are also two points behind the Los Angeles Kings for third place in the Pacific Division.
The good news with all of these scenarios is that the Canucks have played the least number of games — 19 — of any team in the National Hockey League entering Tuesday’s game versus Boston. They have three games in hand on Edmonton, Colorado and Los Angeles.
However, the question remains: will the Canucks make the playoffs?
Many assume once the team gets 100% healthy, they will find a way to get it done but you know what they say about people who assume.
Let’s start with Demko, the 28-year-old who compiled a 2.45 goals-against-average and a .918 save percentage last season to go along with 35 wins in 51 games. Since March 10, he has played a grand total of four games; that’s four games in eight months.
After such a lengthy layoff, the biggest concern for Demko will be timing and getting used to the intensity level of NHL games. As we often say when it comes to football, nothing duplicates game speed. For Demko, getting used to the speed and regular chaos of NHL games will be a challenge.
Then there is Boeser, who had been out of the lineup for almost three weeks after taking a headshot from Tanner Jeannot in a game against the Kings in early November. Hopefully, there won’t be any lingering symptoms from that injury and Boeser can regain the pace that saw him score 40 goals last year and which he was duplicating this season with six goals in 12 games.
As for Miller, when he does return, what player will the Canucks be getting?
His play had dipped to the point where he was benched for the last 14:40 of the third period in his final game versus Nashville on Nov. 17. Miller’s production had waned with only six goals and ten assists in 17 games – well off the levels from a year ago when he tallied 37 goals and 66 assists.
Then there are other issues that are of concern as well.
The second defensive pair of Tyler Myers and Carson Soucy has struggled this season to the point where the organization is checking in with other teams as they look to get help for their blue line corps. What has compounded the problem is that Tocchet has emphasized since training camp that he wants his defencemen to be more involved in the offense and generating more chances.
That doesn’t exactly fit into the skill set of either Myers or Soucy so it’s been noted that the Canucks are talking to other teams with Pittsburgh’s Marcus Pettersson being a player of interest. Although Pettersson is a solid defender, he’s not exactly the answer to the Canucks problems when it comes to offence from the back-end.
While we are on the topic of Petterssons, the enigma known as Elias Pettersson will need to regain the form that saw him be a dynamic play-driver who scored 30-plus goals the last three seasons. Tocchet and the organization wanted to see more of an investment from Pettersson and the Swede has shown signs of improvement with four goals and six assists in his last seven games.
There are other positive signs as well.
Quinn Hughes continues to play at a Norris Trophy-calibre level while Kevin Lankinen has provided consistent goaltending during Demko’s absence. Conor Garland continues to play like Conor Garland and Pius Sutter and Teddy Blueger continue to provide good depth while new additions Kiefer Sherwood and Erik Brannstrom have exceeded expectations.
Given what we know about the U.S Thanksgiving Day playoff trend, it’s not a slam dunk that the Canucks will make the post-season but it’s not a slam dunk they won’t either.
Unlike last year when the team had enough of a cushion in the standings to play games pressure-free for the most part in the second half, it appears they won’t have that luxury this season.
As Tocchet always likes to say, things are going to just keep ‘getting tougher’ and the Canucks are going to have to ‘embrace the hard’ as they deal with the grind of an NHL season.
Their playoff hopes will depend on it.
Veteran B.C. sports personality Bob “the Moj” Marjanovich writes twice weekly for Black Press Media.
