The B.C. NDP under Premier David Eby stands poised to govern with a bare majority, but has also signalled its willingness to work with the opposition parties.
"Our goal is to work with any MLA who wants to make sure that this place works for British Columbians on those priorities that I laid out: cost of living, housing, health care — what matters to British Columbia," Eby said Tuesday. "So to that end, we are meeting with the Greens today."
He later extended the invention for conversations to "all MLAs." But if he signalled a willingness to cooperate in all directions, it is not clear yet what any future working arrangement might look like.
UBC political scientist Stewart Prest said the B.C. NDP could technically govern by itself, but he expects the party to secure additional help from the B.C. Greens, either "implicit and informal, or explicit and agreed upon."
In 2017, the two parties settled on the second option when they signed a confidence-and-supply-agreement that paved the path for Eby's predecessor John Horgan to become premier of a minority government, after B.C. Liberal Darryl Plecas agreed to become speaker.
Prest expects a similar arrangement even though Eby — unlike Horgan in 2017— has won a majority.
"I think there may be a preference for a more formal agreement, simply because it provides additional stability for both sides going forward," Prest said. He specifically expects the B.C. Greens to look for the strongest possible guarantee to avoid a repeat of 2020 when Horgan — exploiting weakness in the then-B.C. Liberals — cancelled the confidence-and-supply agreement en route to winning a majority in the subsequent election.
Prest said a formal arrangement providing additional stability makes a sense against the backdrop of promises of disruption from the Conservative Party.
"If the Conservatives really do try to make life as difficult as possible for the governing (B.C. NDP), the NDP may look for a stronger relationship with the Greens to forestall the worst of any mischief-making the opposition can get into into."
Kareem Allam, partner with Fairview Strategy, said he would favour certainty, when asked about the two scenarios facing the B.C. Greens.
"If the (B.C. Greens) want to have maximum influence, they should want to have a confidence-and-supply agreement," he said. "It has less to do with how (Eby) perceives it. It's more to do with how much influence the (B.C. Greens) actually want to have. Do they want to be the third ranked party..in the legislature or do they want to be a partner in legislating? It's up to them."
In fact, Allam thinks Furstenau missed a strategic opportunity when the initial vote count still showed the B.C. NDP short of a majority.
"If I was Sonia Furstenau last week, I would have gone all in on a confidence-and-supply agreement, trying to get it done in a week, just in case, the NDP pulled a majority." Allam also defended Furstenau's criticism of the Conservatives at the time. She had signalled that she won't talk with Rustad until he demonstrated "what kind of leadership he has at this point".
Critics subsequently accused Furstenau of not only misreading the election results but also giving up leverage. Allam does not see it that way.
"That was a perfectly reasonable comment for her to make," he said. "Why would she go into a deal with a guy who doesn't believe in climate change when that was sort of a founding principle of her party?"
Rustad responded by questioning Furstenau's understanding of democracy.
“I think Sonia is obviously not a big fan of democracy,” Rustad told Rob Shaw of the Orca. “The people of various ridings have spoken, as to who should be elected and who shouldn’t be elected. So I have to honour it.”
For the record, the final vote count shows the Conservatives with 910,180 votes, 43.27 per cent of the popular vote and 44 seats, the B.C. Greens with 173,382 votes, 8.24 per cent of the popular vote and two seats.
Speaking Tuesday afternoon, Rustad said his party would support government policies that support "average, everyday working" persons in B.C., but also repeated earlier promises to bring down the B.C. NDP government.
These debates are unfolding against the related search for a speaker. Eby Tuesday praised the B.C. NDP's Raj Chouhan, who had held the role prior to dissolution, but also left open the possibility of another person taking the job, including members of the opposition.
"Now, we have people on our bench who certainly could fill the role," he said. "It's certainly possible that the Greens or the Conservatives could fill that role," he added.
Rustad Tuesday acknowledged the NDP has reached out, but signalled reluctance to see one of his team becoming speaker.
Prest does not necessarily foresee the B.C. Greens putting up a speaker either.
"I think the Greens may be resistant to the idea of putting up a speaker because there are only two Green voices in the legislature and it would put a huge amount of responsibility on whoever isn't speaker to represent the B.C. Greens in every aspect of government, monitoring every portfolio that the government is dealing with to provide that opposition perspective."
The B.C. Greens would also stand to lose their party status if one of their elected MLAs becomes speaker. Prest said that makes it even less likely they would volunteer.
"It would be a kind of party suicide to do so," he said.
So what does Prest think of the possibility that might see the B.C. NDP put up the speaker again in exchange for a formal, long-term agreement with the B.C. Greens that would preserve their party status?
"I think that is a good theory," he said.
The election of a speaker would take place during the first sitting of the newly elected legislature. Eby said Tuesday his goal is to have a sitting of the legislature as soon as possible, with the timing dependent on the conclusion of two judicial recounts scheduled to place likely around the middle of next month.
