The final vote count announced by Elections BC Monday (Oct. 28) evening shows the B.C. NDP under Premier David Eby with 47 seats — enough for a bare majority government. The Conservative Party of B.C. under John Rustad has 44 seats while the B.C. Greens under Leader Sonia Furstenau has two seats, according to the final vote count, which Elections BC released just before 7 p.m.
Premier David Eby said in a statement issued Monday afternoon before the announcement of the final vote count that Lt. Governor Janet Austin has asked him to form the next government. Eby, who has scheduled a media appearance Tuesday morning, promised to take the close election result to heart.
"People want their elected representatives to deliver results," he said. "A majority of B.C. voters have elected a legislature that shares common values – like addressing affordability, tackling climate change, making sure health care is there when you need it, and building an inclusive province with safe communities where everyone belongs," he added.
The statement also acknowledged what Elections BC later confirmed when it announced the final vote count. Two ridings — Surrey-Guildford and Kelowna-Centre — are heading for automatic judicial recounts. They must take place if the difference between the top two candidates is less than 1/500th of the total ballots considered. This fact ultimately means that the final seat count of what many consider to be the closest election in B.C. history remains up in the air more than a week after the Oct. 19 election.
Around 7:30 p.m., Rustad issued a statement in which he acknowledged that his party no longer has a path toward victory, but also re-affirmed the integrity of the election. "I accept the results of this election. I thank our Elections BC workers for their hard and dedicated work," he said. "While there are still judicial recounts to be completed, it's now clear that our party will not win enough seats to form government in B.C.," he added.
Rustad, who has scheduled a media appearance on Tuesday for 2 p.m., paired this acknowledgement with the promise that his caucus would hold the incoming government "accountable" while "advocating for policies that reflect the best interests of all British Columbians."
Rustad also pointed to the historic accomplishment of his party. "We have made history in B.C.," he said. "Just 18 months ago, the Conservative Party of B.C. was at (two per cent) in the polls, had no members, no money, no team."
It will head into the provincial legislature with 44 seats, almost all of them first-time MLAs.
In Surrey-Guildford, B.C. NDP candidate Garry Begg started the day 12 votes behind his Conservative opponent Honveer Singh Randhawa, but finished it 27 votes ahead after the counting of all outstanding ballots. This change flipped the seat from the Conservatives to the B.C. NDP and gave the party a bare majority in the 93-seat legislature. But Begg's margin falls within the 38-vote threshold for a judicial recount. Honveer Singh Randhawa had led the seat with 103 votes after the initial count on Oct. 19.
In Kelowna-Centre, Conservative candidate Kristina Loewen has seen her election eve lead of 148 over Loyal Wooldridge of the B.C. NDP shrink to 38 votes with the recount margin being 49 votes.
So depending on the outcome of each recount, the B.C. NDP could conceivably end up with between 46 seats and a minority government, and 48 seats and a majority.
A Supreme Court of British Columbia justice will conduct any future judicial recount following a formal mandatory application by the respective district electoral officer. Interested parties will know the location and date of a judicial recount within 72 hours of that formal application and the judicial recount must be held within seven to 15 days following the declaration of official results. Any judicial recount itself could take between one and two days.
That timing matters because it will help shape Eby's decision to recall the legislature.
Eby's statement did not give clues about when he would face the legislature, but promised to get working on current challenges right away.
Two ridings — Surrey-Centre and Juan de Fuca-Malahat — were also subjects of automatic recounts. Those respective recounts included all ballots for those riding counted on election night, plus ballots cast by voters on Oct. 19 in other districts. All ballots were hand-counted. The B.C. NDP led each riding on election day — by 103 and 23 votes, respectively — and was able to extend its lead. In Surrey-Centre, the B.C. NDP finished 236 votes ahead. In Juan de Fuca-Malahat, the B.C. NDP finished 141 votes ahead.
UBC political scientist Stewart Prest said these results offer a "kind of resolution" that would allow the B.C. NDP to put some "provisional plans" in place for how it would govern. But Prest also points out that results may still change and the B.C. NDP will still have difficulties governing without "some kind of additional help."
The choice of speaker for the legislature is of particular interest, Prest said. If the B.C. NDP were to choose a speaker from among their own ranks, the legislature would return to a minority situation.
While the speaker can break a tie on confidence votes, "that's not easy to govern," he said. "So I suspect, that regardless of what happens during this recount in the next couple of hours, we are going to see some form of cooperation, whether implicit and informal or explicit and agreed upon, between the NDP and the Greens."
Furstenau said in a statement issued before the release of the final count that "(pending) a judicial recount, it appears as though MLAs from different parties will have to work together for the Legislature to function effectively.”
Furstenau said the results show that British Columbians are demanding "better outcomes" from their government. "(Our) focus is on ensuring effective services and a higher quality of life for people," she said. "Government works best when MLAs collaborate and prioritize their constituents over party interests to deliver those outcomes.”
Prior to Surrey-Guildford, the Greens appeared to hold the balance of power with the B.C. NDP short one seat of a majority. So how does this change impact the Greens' leverage?
"The Greens' leverage is already somewhat limited," Prest said.
"The leader, Sonia Furstenau, has indicated she has a marked preference to work with the NDP. So it becomes a question under what conditions that arrangement would work. So it seems that (Eby) and (Furstenau) have an effective working relationship, so they may find some kind of shared basis that serves both of their perceived interests. So it may be a question of leverage, but it may not even be a conversation about bargaining, as so much about problem-solving."
