A political scientist does not expect broad economic questions like B.C.'s budget or its competitiveness to replace immediate pocket-book issues during the up-coming provincial election.
"Given where we are, issues of affordability and health spending will be the focus of voters going into the election," University of B.C. professor Stewart Prest said.
"Barring some kind of deficit or debt crisis for the province — and we don't really seem to be in that space at the moment — I don't see those issues leap-frogging the broader concerns regarding the social programming and housing and affordability issues that continue to dominate the list of most important issues for voters."
Prest made these comments after the B.C. Chamber of Commerce had issued an appeal to all parties to spell out their plans to grow the economy and create investment certainty.
"Without it, as a province, we risk running off a financial cliff," Fiona Famulak, president and chief executive officer, said after releasing a poll which the chamber says points to declining economic opportunity and growing uncertainty.
Both the Conservative Party of B.C. and B.C United used the occasion to criticize the B.C. NDP under Premier David Eby.
Conservative Leader John Rustad said in a release that the current government is driving businesses out of B.C. through higher costs.
“This research by BC Chamber of Commerce is clear as day — the opportunities my generation took for granted are being robbed from our kids and grandkids by Eby’s radical, dysfunctional NDP," he said.
Peter Milobar, shadow finance minister for B.C. United, said the poll validates his party's proposed policies to accelerate the development of natural resources in B.C., especially critical minerals, and return money to British Columbians through tax cuts.
"As move through the election phase, as we move through the writ period, our policies and what we are proposing to do are very much in line with what people are thinking," Milobar said.
The chamber's poll appeared 24 hours after B.C.'s Finance Minister Katrine Conroy had presented the final financial figures for 2023-24. They show the provincial deficit exceeding $5 billion: almost 20 per cent higher than the original budget. Conroy said the higher spending reflects additional spending on fighting fires and floods as well as B.C.'s social and physical infrastructure.
While government has a plan to eventually balance the budget, current deficits are sustainable, she said, adding this is not the time to make cuts in the face of challenges to affordability.
Speaking at unrelated event in Vernon Friday, Eby said his government's commitment is clear.
"When government can, we...have balanced the budget," he said in pointing to seven straight balanced budget in the past. "When people need support, whether it's in relation to forest fires or floods or health care, they're struggling with the cost of living, we're going to step up and support them and that's what we believe government should be doing and we're going to keep doing that work."
Prest does not foresee deficits as a political liability for the B.C. NDP.
"People accept that deficits may be necessary because they also have an expectation that government will take care of certain things," he said. "It's no longer just a matter of getting taxes down the lowest point possible. It's more of a value proposition for voters at this point."
According to the chamber's poll, the top three issues heading into the election are health care, affordability and housing. Voters consider provincial New Democrats best suited to handle those issues by margins of 11, 11 and 8 per cent when compared to the provincial Conservatives.
Voters also consider the NDP best suited to handle investments in schools, hospitals, roads, transit and other public infrastructure and improve public education by margins of 13 per cent each.
Voters, meanwhile, consider Conservatives better suited to keep taxes low (plus 10 per cent), deal with crime and public safety (plus six per cent), grow the economy (plus two per cent), balance the budget (plus eight) and encourage more investment (plus seven per cent).
The two parties were on par when it comes to supporting local businesses, with the B.C. NDP up by one per cent.
Prest said he finds the figures for the Conservatives on the economy "curious" because "they have not given a strong sense of how they would govern differently in terms of economic issues."
He added that the party might enjoy a "perceptional bias" among voters that conservative parties are strong on economic issues. Provincial Conservatives might be benefiting from the perceived strength of the federal Conservatives, Prest added.
"It will be interesting to see whether that perception continues and is reinforced as we get closer to the election and perhaps learn a little bit more about what the Conservatives' plans are if indeed they were to form government," Prest said.
Rustad has in the past promised that the provincial Conservatives would eliminate the carbon tax to help British Columbians with costs, end "ill-conceived regulations" in supporting small business and attract more investment by cutting permitting times for resource projects and corporate taxes. Rustad has also called to increase agricultural production in B.C. and floated the idea of B.C.'s acquiring immigration powers comparable to Quebec's to help fill labour shortages.
The chamber's poll gives the NDP 43 per cent among decided and leaning voters, eight points ahead of the Conservatives. B.C. United under Leader Kevin Falcon sits 12 per cent while the B.C. Greens under Sonia Furstenau sit at 10 per cent.
The poll also points to a reservoir of would-be voters who are not yet familiar with where the parties stand. About three in 10 voters did not know which of the two leading parties would be better suited on any given issue.
"The campaign is really going to matter here," Prest said. "The NDP have a number of strong advantages as the incumbent...but this isn't a sure thing. The fact that nearly a third of voters are still waiting to make up their minds (on these issues), this suggests that this either's party election for the taking."
