A B.C. political scientist said Federal Liberal Mark Carney enters the English-language leaders debate relatively unscathed and in the lead in key parts of Canada after doing a rope-a-dope at yesterday's French-language debate.
"Carney, to use an old boxing metaphor, he would be like a Muhammad Ali," Michael Prince, acting dean of Human and the Social Development faculty at the University of Victoria, said. "You put your arms up, protect yourself, make sure the other guy doesn't hit you on the chin, take some body blows, just do your two hours and get out."
Prince said he expects a comparable dynamic during the English-language debate, when Carney faces off against federal Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre, federal New Democratic Leader Jagmeet Singh and Bloc Quebecois Leader Yves-François Blanchet.
"Some of the things last night, in many ways, were a dress rehearsal for tonight's debate," Prince said.
Prince said Poilievre looked more prime-ministerial than in the past. He added that he expects the federal Conservative leader will continue to compare Carney with his unpopular predecessor, former prime minister, Justin Trudeau. Poilievre will also try to close the gender gap with women.
But Prince questioned the Conservatives' approach, pointing to Carney's efforts to distance himself from Trudeau by way of eliminating unpopular policies like the consumer carbon tax. This and other moves have taken the wind out of the Conservatives' sails, Prince said, pointing to the Liberals' strong leads in Ontario, Quebec and parts of western Canada.
"Poilievre is really good at slogans and sound bites," Prince said questioning Poilievre's emphasis on crime and public safety — a message that appears to come out of the playbook of former prime minister Stephen Harper.
"It's like watching a sports team using old plays from a previous team and it's like 'don't you have your own?' They sound dated and all they are doing is really speaking to his core base."
Singh, meanwhile, will continue to bring up health care, Prince added.
But Prince also pointed to Singh's attacks on Poilievre. This can be explained by the fact that Conservatives, not federal Liberals, are threatening several NDP seats, especially in B.C.'s Interior and on Vancouver Island.
"So I think part of that was a very deliberate..regional rather than national strategy," Prince said. This aspect also benefits federal Liberals, he added.
As for Carney, his "wheelhouse" remains the tariff dispute with the United States.
But as the same four leaders prepare to meet tonight for the second time in 24 hours, several differences will differentiate tonight's debate, starting with the obvious one: language.
Experts consider Carney's French to be the worst of the four leaders; expectations will be higher as he answers questions in his native English. Tonight's debate will also have a larger audience and different topics. Themes for the French-language debate were cost of living; energy and climate; trade war; identity and sovereignty; and immigration and foreign affairs.
Themes for the English-language debate are affordability and the cost of living; energy and climate; leading in a crisis; public safety and security; and tariffs and threats to Canada.
The four leaders will also face a different moderator: Steve Paikin, a long-time host on TV Ontario. While Paikin might not be as familiar to viewers in western Canada as he is in Ontario, he is a “very seasoned” and “highly respected” journalist.
"He has been around politicians a long time...and I hope he shows the same strength and discipline as we saw with the French-language moderators, pushing back on a couple of times, pressing the leaders on details and on costing."
So far, only the federal Greens have released a platform with full financial details. But like Wednesday evening, Green Co-Leader Jonathan Pedneault won't be on stage. The Leaders' Debate Commission had withdrawn Pedneault's invitation, citing the party's decision to withdraw candidates for strategic reasons. Overall, Greens are running 232 candidates across the 343 ridings.
Prince called the decision reasonable, but also acknowledged the curiosity of seeing the leader of a Quebec separatist party dedicated to breaking up Canada on the same stage with three leaders running to lead Canada. It also points to the fact that federal Greens are running across the country, while the Bloc Quebecois is just running in Quebec.
"Blanchet in many ways will be kind of an amusing distraction, which is about all I can," Prince said.
