As British Columbians get ready to watch the only televised debate between leaders of the three major parties running in this year's provincial election, the stakes could not be higher, says one political analyst.
B.C. NDP Leader David Eby, Conservative Party of B.C. Leader John Rustad and B.C. Greens Leader Sonia Furstenau will debate on television tonight for 90 minutes starting at 6:30 p.m. Shachi Kurl, president of the Angus Reid Institute, will moderate. This will be the second TV debate for Furstenau and the first for Eby and Rustad.
The trio — which debated for an hour last week on 980 CKNW for the campaign's only radio debate — enter tonight with the polls showing a close race between Eby's party and Rustad's, with Furstenau's group in third place but with the potential to deny either a majority.
Geoff Meggs, who was chief-of-staff for former NDP Premier John Horgan from 2017 until 2022, said the "very tight, dead-heat" nature of the race gives the debate added importance.
"This is the last real significant opportunity for the leaders to shape views of their offering and their proposals to solve the problems in this province," Meggs said.
Meggs expects Eby to be determined to show he is aware of the public's concerns about health care and that he has a plan to address them.
"So he will want to emphasize his competency and his leadership," he said. "I think he will be looking to underline to people that John Rustad doesn't have plans for those problems and is much riskier choice."
Rustad, meanwhile, has to focus on the issues that matter to British Columbians without getting distracted by stories such as his handling of questions around holding "Nuremberg 2.0" trials for public health officials for their roles during the COVID-19 pandemic.
Mike McDonald, who served as chief-of-staff and campaign director for former B.C. Liberal Premier Christy Clark, said he will be looking at whether Rustad can put himself forward as someone who can fix the problems most important to voters.
"Are voters willing to overlook some of the rough edges of the Conservatives and choose Rustad and change?" McDonald asked. "I think this is a more important moment for him than anyone."
A Fairview Strategy poll released Tuesday shows the B.C. NDP with five per cent lead. Speaking on CBC Radio, Fairview Partner Kareem Allam, a former campaign manager for B.C. United's Kevin Falcon, said voters were looking around following the demise of that party.
"This was a change election...and they have discovered that they don't like the change and they are starting to migrate toward the NDP."
While Allam also pointed to NDP messaging around health care, he said the "most galvanizing" message did not come from the party itself.
"It was Chip Wilson's sign," he said.
A sign reading 'Eby will tell you the Conservatives are 'Far Right' but neglects saying that the NDP is 'Communist' has recently appeared outside Wilson's Vancouver home in Eby's riding of Vancouver Point-Grey. Assessment figures show the home valued at $81.7 million. Allam said that sign has allowed the NDP to reinforce a message of being on the side of average British Columbians.
Allam said he expects Rustad to be more aggressive than Eby in presenting their respective cases.
"Eby won't be swinging too wildly, because he is ahead. John will be throwing more haymakers."
Furstenau, meanwhile, will offer a contrast to her rivals, not just be virtue of being woman, but also in terms of policy, Allem said. She still supports the carbon tax and safe supply while opposing involuntary treatment, he added. These positions give Furstenau the greatest ability to contrast herself from other, he added.
Meggs sees things similarly.
"Furstenau will probably be looking to raise her profile and consolidate her vote and show people that she is an important to have in the legislature, that the Greens are speaking about issues the others are not like climate," he said. "I think she will probably be somewhat effective because she is a contrast to the other two."
Karin Kirkpatrick, a former B.C. United MLA running for re-election as an independent in West Vancouver-Capilano, said one perspective will be noticeably missing tonight.
"That's the perspective of a centrist."
She said that she will be looking for Eby's plan to get B.C. out of debt. She will also want Rustad to explain why he hasn't expelled all his candidates that have shared racist and conspiratorial views on social media.
"Three, I want to see a clean debate where party leaders choose to share their ideas and solutions in a positive manner rather than resorting to mud-slinging, attacks or childish nicknames."
B.C., she added, cannot afford another term of "negative, divisive politics and increasingly toxic discourse."
Both Meggs and Allam also stress the importance of optics, and how different parts of the public ultimately receive the debate.
"Typically, more people hear about the debate than usually see it themselves, so the views that friends and neighbours take away may be more important than what actually happens at the time," Meggs said.
