Two analysts deeply familiar with provincial politics predict that both the B.C. NDP and the Conservative Party of B.C. will go out of their way to highlight the negative characteristics of their opponents.
Geoff Meggs, who served as chief of staff for former New Democratic Premier John Horgan from 2017 until 2022, and Mike McDonald, who served as chief of staff and campaign director for former B.C. Liberal Christy Clark, offered this assessment after Conservative Leader John Rustad found himself Monday defending his views on vaccines after a release of a video, rather than highlight his proposal for housing affordability.
On Friday, Rustad had to defend a Facebook post about climate change released by the B.C. NDP just before his speech at the 2024 Union of British Columbia Municipalities Convention.
McDonald said the B.C. NDP will try to throw the Conservatives off message.
"The Conservatives have issues that they are aligned on with voters...and they are able to tap into public concerns about affordability, about crime, about drugs and addictions," McDonald said. "If they are not able to get their message across because they are defending themselves based on what people have said, it's obviously going to hinder their ability to get their message out."
McDonald added that Conservatives are "probably banking" on the public focusing on bigger issues rather than past comments.
"I think Conservatives will have to try to power through these attacks. May be they got a counter-attack of their own too...the war rooms of each campaign will be considering what is in their arsenal (and) how to deploy it."
Meggs also sees attacks and counter-attacks being a part of the election.
"But unfortunately for Mr. Rustad, he's left a lot of material for people to work with. The positions he held on (issues) like the carbon tax or on vaccines...are positions he has held as a mature thinking person over a long period of years. They weren't snap comments made incautiously when he was a university student," he said.
Meggs also points to Rustad's voting record, "which he is now seeking to repudiate."
The Conservatives have dumped a handful of candidates leading up to the election over comments concerning the effects of COVID-19 vaccines and cellphone towers among other issues. This raises the question whether they properly vet their candidates.
"I don't think so," Meggs said. "No one has had much difficulty finding this material. B.C. United found a lot of it and turned it over to the Conservatives, so they had time to prepare."
This said, Meggs thinks the Conservative campaign is "going to be fundamentally different from what we have experienced in the past" because it will be conducted in social media with highly technical, highly targeted messages to demographics.
"I don't think they are worrying very much about producing a platform that adds up, or any of the other usual bells and whistles."
He added that Conservatives are working behind to appeal to voters that can get them across the finish line. One such key group consists of younger men "who support them politically, but often don't vote," Meggs said. Conservatives have been trying to reach those voters by getting Rustad on Jordan Peterson's podcasts, Meggs said, adding that podcasts have become a popular forum for all candidates.
"They punch above their weight in terms of impact and they are very cheap to do," Meggs. "But I think the Conservative campaign is especially adapted to this and has a lot of people out there watching what Rustad is doing and amplifying it to their audiences."
McDonald, who co-hosts a podcast with Meggs, agrees about the importance and reach of podcasts as part of a social media strategy.
"It may not be a mainstream kind of media thing, but it's hundreds of thousands of people listening to this guy (Jordan Peterson)," McDonald said. Conservatives are also trying to extend their social media game into the respective communities of Chinese-British Columbians and South-Asian British Columbians, he added.
McDonald sees the suburbs of Metro Vancouver with Surrey as a "huge prize" in the campaign, and parts of the Fraser Valley as key battlegrounds.
"There are obviously pockets in other regions," he added. "I think the Conservatives will spend time north of the Malahat Highway on Vancouver Island...and you might see (Premier) David Eby going up to Vernon or Boundary-Similkameen, two ridings that they want to hold."
New Democrats are starting the campaign with more than 50 seats and just need to hold what they have, McDonald added.
"So it's basically a campaign of defending the most vulnerable seats," he said.
Those seats are seats in communities like Richmond, Burnaby, Surrey and Langley with a history of having voted for the B.C. Liberals before the B.C. NDP flipped them in 2020, he added.
McDonald also points to another factor: the role of the B.C. Greens and the Independents. While the B.C. Greens might not win a "bushels of seats," they could end up impacting local races, serving as a "safe landing spot" for British Columbians "turned off by intense polarization," McDonald said.
"You can add to that the independent candidates too."
McDonald added that the B.C. Greens also found some momentum during the actual campaign period.
"(B.C. Green Leader Sonia Furstenau) is the only leader in this election, that has been through a provincial election campaigns before," he said.
Meggs said both New Democrats and Conservatives "should be very happy" with the way the campaign has unfolded thus far. Eby has been able to attract some good crowds and focus on a lot of issues that he wanted to emphasize.
"I think Rustad has got to be happy because he started in a statistical tie in the popular vote, although he has got a lot of work to do to consolidate that in the next three weeks and create an electoral machine that will deliver those results."
Meggs added that Rustad still needs to "convince people they are not taking a quite a risk with him."
McDonald said the end of the week will offer a better sense, where the campaigns are heading.
"Will people be taking about crime by Friday? Will that be the number one topic of conversation or will they be talking about John Rustad's views on vaccines? I think that's the tug-of-war that is going on right now."
