A political strategist gives B.C. Greens Leader Sonia Furstenau top marks for her performance during Tuesday's televised leader's debate, but a UBC political scientist suggests it might not mean more seats for the party.
Kareem Allam, a partner with Fairview Strategy, said Furstenau had the "strongest performance" in the debate with B.C. NDP Leader David Eby and Conservative Party of B.C.
"She spoke with conviction, she spoke with passion, she was aspirational in her approach."
Allam added that Tuesday's debate was existential for the party.
"The Greens are polling to win, maybe two seats and I think she made a good case that there should be more Greens in the legislature." Allam specifically singled out the possibility of the Greens winning West Vancouver-Sea to Sky as their first Lower Mainland seat.
UBC political scientist Stewart Prest said Furstenau "acquitted herself well" especially when it came to making the case against Rustad as being "literally, figuratively yesterday's man."
But given the logic of the first-past-the-post system, Prest things her arguments against Rustad might turn into votes for the B.C. NDP.
"I don't know if it (Furstenau's performance) will translate into significant additional support. For those, who are really frustrated with both options available, she has given people plenty to think about in terms of an alternative, but that's not the same thing as winning a series of seats."
As for Eby and Rustad, Allam said Eby "probably gained a little bit more than Rustad" from the debate. He added that Eby's two strongest moments came in areas favourable for Rustad: crime and safety as well as the economy, specifically around the involvement of First Nations in the economy.
"His (Eby's) comments on the Lands Act demonstrated an understanding that we are only going to move forward with First Nations," Allam said.
So did Rustad's performance give British Columbians permission to make him premier?
"I don't think he lost any ground," Allam said. "Where he would have made up ground, is a lot of people don't know John Rustad and this was the first time that they got to meet him. So for those that are inclined to vote Conservatives and are concerned about crime and concerned about the economy, he would have won those votes."
But Allam wondered if Rustad may have also missed an opportunity to make a better impression.
"One, the lighting wasn't in his favour," he said. "He wasn't looking straight into the camera, so his debate prep team didn't do the best job of getting him ready. He looked tired."
Prest said those who were already frustrated and looking for an alternative to the B.C. NDP saw someone in Rustad who shares that frustration.
"I was actually surprised by how dark his tone was at times," Prest said. "He used a variety of dark imagery throughout the debate and while he talked about turning a corner, going in a different direction, on the idea of a more hopeful future, that was not as strong than I expected."
Prest described Rustad as a "Facebook meme page" whose descriptions might have resonated with those who feel the situation is dire.
"But for those, who are on the fence, I don't know if that is going to convince many undecided."
As for Eby, Prest said he is still looking to connect with voters in the way his predecessor John Horgan did.
"I think he was pretty scripted to start the debate," Prest said, adding he appeared to get more comfortable as the debate went on and
"Then some of the passion for why he is in that role started to come through a little more."
So with advanced voting starting Oct. 10 and general voting day 11 days away, will voters ultimately care who won the debate?
Pointing to two recent polls, including one from his own company, Allam said the NDP might be on the verge of breaking away from the Conservatives.
"To break up that momentum, John Rustad needed to land a bigger blow on David Eby. I don't think he did that last night," he said. "David Eby seemed to do what he needed to do. He looked better on stage. He seemed to be in command of the issues and there were no obvious fumbles or bobbles on his end."
Coverage of the debate itself will also shape the race.
"(It) doesn't feel like John Rustad is winning," he said. "It doesn't feel like his team was excited by his performance and that is going to influence the coverage. So debates are critically important for just influencing perception and influencing tone on the media bus, around the press gallery."
Turning to a new Leger poll that shows the B.C. NDP with a five point lead, Prest warned against reading too much into it.
"But if that result does hold up, I think it's an indication that the relentless drum beat, to attack on Mr. Rustad using his own words again and again against him is bearing fruit," Prest said.
When asked about declining Conservative support among youth and women, Prest said those groups are "pre-disposed to more culturally progressive parties" in pointing to what he called a "distinct difference" between the Conservatives in their current form and B.C. United.
