As B.C. parties enter their first full week of campaigning, the first few days have revealed some perceived strengths and weaknesses, says an analyst.
University of B.C. political scientist Stewart Prest said NDP Leader David Eby has so far focused his campaign on Metro Vancouver and the Fraser Valley, targeting areas where frustrations with the incumbent government might be high and where more rural parts of the province meet more urban parts.
"That's where the election will be decided," Prest said. "Mr. Eby is aware of that, trying to tip the balance in some of those newly drawn (ridings) where every vote will matter in holding on to some of the unexpected gains from 2020, or at least holding the line on comparative strengths."
Eby launched his re-election campaign Friday in Surrey, then campaigned in Richmond, the North Shore and Burnaby. On Sunday, he campaigned in Port Moody, and Langley. He then returning to Burnaby on Monday, where he highlighted health care issues, and promised to allow pharmacists to test and prescribe for more common conditions, cut medical bureaucracy, provide provisional licences for doctors, nurses, and midwives trained in Canada, and recruit more physician assistants.
Meanwhile, Conservative Party of B.C. Leader John Rustad kicked off his formal campaign Saturday in Vancouver near the site of a homeless encampment, then travelled to central Vancouver Island for a large campaign launch. He then campaigned Sunday and Monday in Surrey, where he promised to close down supervised consumption and overdose prevention sites, invest more in treatment and recovery, reinstate criminal penalties for hard drugs, and step up policing.
Prest described Rustad's decision to campaign on Vancouver Island, an historic stronghold of the B.C. NDP, as an "interesting choice" because "it speaks to the way in which the electoral map is changing."
While Greater Victoria might be out of the Conservatives' reach, their message could put the northern half of Vancouver Island into play. Rustad's choice to launch his first event in CRAB Park along Vancouver's shoreline, with the tents of a homeless camp in sight also sent another message.
"It's another way to stress that message of personal responsibility and the need to maintain political public order as a priority for the Conservatives," Prest said.
With this comment, Prest points to the larger fault line of this campaign. Whereas the B.C. NDP is campaigning on the promise to address current conditions through systemic changes, the Conservatives are holding the NDP responsible for those conditions.
"The B.C. NDP is arguing, 'we have started a significant long-term progress to address those issues,'" Prest said. "And the B.C. Conservatives are saying, 'well, this is a problem that emerged or at least worsened during the B.C. NDP time in office, so it must be their fault.'"
Another difference in philosophy is in the wy the parties approach housing.
"The NDP is saying, 'we are trying to build different kinds of systems (to create housing),'" Prest said. "And the Conservatives' message is, 'we are going to give you specific resources to try to solve your individual problem without necessarily putting forward an over-arching plan.'"
Prest was referring to Rustad's announcement Monday morning in Surrey that he would give British Columbians up to $3,000 in monthly tax deductions by 2029 to help them pay for housing, starting with $1,500 per month in Jan. 2026.
New Democrats and Conservative also differ in organizational structures. New Democrats can draw on what Prest called a "well-established, well-oiled" campaign machine that is "very good" at developing a day-by-day message. They also possess the "nuts and bolts logistics" of a formal campaign and mobilizing volunteers for various duties, including fundraising and site preparation.
"I think the Conservatives are building that apparatus on the fly," he said. "They have or more less admitted as much."
But Prest added that the Conservatives might have the natural ability to amplify their message through their online campaign. The dramatically changed media system in B.C. has given Conservatives the chance to reach voters directly.
"Having essentially a right-of-centre social media and digital media eco-system is going to play to the Conservatives' advantage," Prest said.
The opening days of the campaign have also seen the B.C. NDP dig up quotes and videos meant to cast Rustad in a negative light concerning his position on climate change and vaccines.
Prest said he expects this trend to continue. While voters are starting to get more comfortable with the Conservatives, questions about the party remain.
"Are they simply the B.C. Liberals with a new name or are they something distinct, committed to those critical, skeptical positions around climate change...around vaccines...around an inclusive approach to gender education and diversity more broadly?"
But for this strategy to work, the B.C. NDP needs to find a "kind of smoking gun," something that is "definitively new and different and essentially, in some sense, disturbing for voters to pay attention at this point," Prest said. "The window seems to be closing on the definition of the B.C. Conservative Party."
As for the Conservatives, Prest predicts that they will pick and choose which statements to defend.
"They will really want to rebut (attacks) in various ways, but they may actually find value in actually noting (Rustad's) willingness to speak for the unheard, for those who feel like they are left behind, because that is, of course, a core voting group for this party."
B.C. Greens under Leader Sonia Furstenau, meanwhile, kicked off her and her party's campaign in downtown Victoria in the riding of Victoria Beacon-Hill. Furstenau is running against incumbent New Democrat Grace Lore, who was the B.C.'s Minister of Children and Family Development prior to the dissolution of the provincial legislature. Prest sees Furstenau facing an uphill climb.
"So I think she (Furstenau) has her work cut out for her to hold on to a seat in the legislature," he said.
The party entered the race with two seats in the legislature, but both are open after Furstenau decided to run in Victoria-Beacon Hill rather than Cowichan Valley and Adam Olsen decided against running again in Saanich North and the Islands.
Furstenau, for her part, has struck a positive tone, most recently at the Union of British Columbia Municipalities Convention, where she appealed for a minority government with the Greens holding the balance of power.
